612
FXUS62 KILM 280739
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT WILL ALSO DRIFT
INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBILITY OF A WET MICROBURST COULD EXIST TO
PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS UP AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE TO NEARLY 596 DAM BY MIDWEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF DANGEROUS
HEAT, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY WED AND THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK UP IN THE 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISO TSTMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS TIS MORNING WITH GREATER POTENTIAL INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE INCLUDED TEMPOS OR PROB30S
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE TAFS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CEILINGS IN
TSTMS.
KEPT A SPRINKLING OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY
INLAND TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH. THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE
AT BOTH KLBT AND KFLO. THE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, DIURNALLY ENHANCED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (LESSER CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...S-SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE COAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. WITH THE OLD FRONT
IN THE VICINITY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OFF
THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF S-SWLY WINDS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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