947
FXUS62 KILM 280955
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH 6 AM EDT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT WILL ALSO DRIFT
INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBILITY OF A WET MICROBURST COULD EXIST TO
PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS UP AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE TO NEARLY 596 DAM BY MIDWEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF DANGEROUS
HEAT, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY WED AND THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK UP IN THE 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR TO IFR FOG LINGERS INLAND, BUT KFLO AND KLBT HAVE MANAGED
TO DODGE IT THUS FAR. KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR HAVE ALSO MANAGED TO
AVOID OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SCRAPING THE COAST. ANY LOW
STRATUS RESTRICTIONS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z OR SO. THE FOG INLAND IS A BIT TRICKIER.
IF FOG SETTLES IN ALONG KFLO OR KLBT, IT MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NEED MONITORING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. USED TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS TO REPRESENT THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL STORMS.
WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING, REMAINING THAT WAY ALL NIGHT
LONG TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY INLAND TONIGHT,
WHERE KFLO AND KLBT MAY BE DEALING WITH MVFR AT THE VERY LEAST.
IFR OR LIFR LOW STRATUS MAY BECOME THE THEME TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL,
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (LESSER CHANCES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY).
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...S-SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE COAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. WITH THE OLD FRONT
IN THE VICINITY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OFF
THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF S-SWLY WINDS
POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RGZ
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