196
FXUS62 KILM 281835
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE DECREASED, ALTHOUGH
LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR IN A
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THIS SETUP. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR ONE SUCH PERIOD TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING NEARLY OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXTENIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
HEAVY SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT STILL
APPEARS INLAND TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE DUE TO
THINNER CLOUD COVER AND MORE BREAKS UP THERE. PROB30S REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OVERNIGHT, HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW
IMPACTFUL LOW CIGS/VIS GET, AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
TO LIFR IMPACTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS THERE WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, KEEPING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEAR THE COAST, ALTHOUGH
VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS APPEAR LESS LIKELY
TONIGHT THAN INLAND AREAS, SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CAUSE IMPACTS FROM LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONT SHIFTS TO THE COAST. AS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA TAKES OVER, A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1-2 FT
IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC SWELLS. SOUTHERLY 1-2 FT WIND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT, LEAVING ITS COMPONENT AT 1 FT OR LESS
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW
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