838
FXUS62 KILM 282321
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE NEAR-TERM LACK OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST AND FOR THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE OF STORMS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UWHARRIES AND QUITE IMPOSING LOOKING ON RADAR, IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MAKING IT EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER
NEW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH
POPS RISING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH
WILMINGTON BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR IN A
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THIS SETUP. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR ONE SUCH PERIOD TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING NEARLY OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE ARE MANY MOVING PIECES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT IS
LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. FIRSTLY: CONVECTION
NEAR KLBT MAY BE JOINED BY NEW STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
FRAGMENT AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01-02Z. THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KLBT, AND A LOW POTENTIAL AT KFLO.
LATER TONIGHT MODELS PAINT A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING NEAR KLBT AND KFLO.
THESE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE CONTINGENT ON SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL, AND THAT IS NOT
A FOREGONE CONCLUSION GIVEN SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 08Z. THE WINDOW FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG IS
GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.
MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KILM AND A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT KMYR AND KCRE MAINLY AFTER 09Z. ANY COASTAL
CONVECTION SHOULD WRAP UP BETWEEN 14-15Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED
INLAND STORMS COULD FIRE UP AFTER 18-19Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONT SHIFTS TO THE COAST. AS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA TAKES OVER, A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1-2 FT
IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC SWELLS. SOUTHERLY 1-2 FT WIND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT, LEAVING ITS COMPONENT AT 1 FT OR LESS
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ABW
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