111
FXUS62 KILM 290811
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
411 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS WERE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN
EASILY OCCUR IN A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED GIVEN
THIS SETUP. SHOULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS END UP
BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING NEARLY OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WERE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS
ALSO, THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW
STRATUS INLAND BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AS CONVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG MIXING IN AT KLBT
AND KFLO. ANY COASTAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 14-15Z
SATURDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF INLAND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK S-SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT
DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. AS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA TAKES
OVER, A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI
ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY EAST-
SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC SWELLS. SOUTHERLY 1-2 FT WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT, LEAVING ITS COMPONENT AT 1 FT OR LESS
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUES NIGHT INTO WED.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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