570
FXUS62 KILM 291831
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPEARS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD IN ITS PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARBY OR OVER THE AREA AND KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WHERE
GREATER SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR IN A SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM.
THUS, HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE
SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS (WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F
OR HIGHER) IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS MAY STILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME CUMULUS CONTINUE TO
FORM AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR ANY
IMPACTFUL SHOWERS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL JUST HIGH ENOUGH AT
KILM TO MAINTAIN A PROB30 THERE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT
INLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF
PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH PREVENTED RESTRICTIONS FROM
DEVELOPING LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS AND
LACK OF WINDS, JUST ENOUGH THINNING OR BREAKS IN THE HIGH CIRRUS CAN
STILL RESULT IN MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. NEAR THE COAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, WITH PASSING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY NOON, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT SUNRISE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
IN PLACE AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, A
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT
IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC
SWELLS. WIND WAVES OF 1 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE IN TANDEM WITH
THE DAYTIME INCREASE IN WINDS. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 11-12
SEC SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SEAS INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI
ZONES AND 3-4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY MATCHING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH
DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH 2011 AND
2010 AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM AUGUST 28.
#1 2026 81.8 DEG F (WITH THREE DAYS LEFT)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page