321
FXUS62 KILM 300727
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER TODAY.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER TODAY.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD IN ITS PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
PUSHING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TODAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR
IN A SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM. THUS, HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS (WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F
OR HIGHER) IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT FLO AND LBT EARLY
THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD
SEE A HEAVY SHOWER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OFFSHORE
NOCTURNAL STORMS MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS GENERALLY
AFTER 08-10Z. KILM HAS THE BETTER CHANCES AT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
RESULTING FROM THESE SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO
KCRE/KMYR. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLO AND LBT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR-MASS IN PLACE DURING THAT
TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO MIDWEEK, A RETURN OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI
ZONES PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC SWELLS. WIND
WAVES OF 1 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE IN TANDEM WITH THE DAYTIME
INCREASE IN WINDS. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 11-12 SEC SHOULD
REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING SEAS INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 3-4
FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY MATCHING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH
DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH 2011 AND
2010 AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM AUGUST 28.
#1 2026 81.8 DEG F (WITH THREE DAYS LEFT)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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