884
FXUS62 KILM 301837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHEN HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD FRONT BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD TO THE EAST OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PICTURE,
MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA,
BUT WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER
FROM THE NORTH. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES,
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR IN A SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS (WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F
OR HIGHER) IS EXPECTED.
WITH REGARD TO THIS HEAT EXTENDING BEYOND THE WORK WEEK, GUIDANCE
TOOLS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, GREATER CLOUD COVER, AND CONSIDERABLY
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT
BEING CUT OFF THIS WEEKEND AND REPLACED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
INCREASING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND TRACK
INLAND WITH TIME, BRINGING A RISK FOR TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS TO THE
INLAND TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, CALM WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ARE LIKELY TO YIELD EXTENSIVE LIFR
TO VLIFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LEAST AT KFLO AND KLBT, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AS DENSE HIGH CIRRUS MAY HANG ON THROUGH
THE ENTIRE NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG, IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL 14Z OR SO FOR RESTRICTIONS TO CLEAR AT THE INLAND SITES,
WITH A MORE RAPID CLEARING LIKELY FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT MANAGE
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE, BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS
CUMULUS STARTS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS BECOME A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY AND LITTLE TO NONE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO MIDWEEK, A RETURN OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ON LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS DUE TO A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE, INCREASING SPEEDS INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS
WILL RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI
ZONES, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SOUTHEASTERLY 8-9 SEC SWELLS. WIND WAVES
OF 1 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE IN TANDEM WITH THE DAYTIME INCREASE IN
WINDS. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 11 SEC SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SEAS INTO THE 2-3
FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 3-4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 9 SEC OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN STEADY.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH
DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1F BELOW 2011 AND 2010
AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM AUGUST 29.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F (WITH TWO DAYS TO GO)
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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