304
FXUS62 KILM 310706
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON THE 00Z HREF, FORECAST POPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR LOCATIONS 5-30 MILES INLAND FROM THE
COAST WHERE THIS AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND
DURING PEAT HEATING/INSTABILITY. MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT FORECASTS FOR MORE INTENSE HEAT LATER IN
THE WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT.
UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. THE ONLY TRIGGER I CAN FIND IS THE SEABREEZE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PUSH INLAND BEGINNING AROUND NOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST COVERAGE 20-40 PERCENT,
CLOSELY FOLLOWING 00Z HREF POPS. THERE'S NO SHEAR ALOFT TODAY SO
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED SINGLE CELLS WITH VERY LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL BRING HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER CURRENTLY CENTERED
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SHOULD REACH THE CAROLINAS
BY THURSDAY. DESCENDING, WARMING, AND DRYING AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD WORK ITS WAY AS LOW AS 3000-4000 FEET AGL BY
THURSDAY, CAPPING SURFACE PARCELS TO MOIST CONVECTION AND
SPIKING 850 MB TEMPS POSSIBLY UP AS HIGH AS +21C. IF THE AIRMASS
DOES BECOME THIS WARM, IT WILL BE 3 DEG C ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE AT BOTH THE KCHS AND KMHX UPPER
AIR SITES AND VERY CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS, AND ONLY 2 DEG C AWAY
FROM THE HIGHEST READINGS EVER OBSERVED THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON.
TRANSLATING THIS HEAT ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 TODAY, LOWER 90S TUESDAY,
THEN MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VERTICAL MIXING WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BRING SOME DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
BUT HEAT INDICES STILL APPEAR THEY WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR
MOST AREA EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A TROUGH ZIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY, TEMPERING THE HEAT AND RETURNING
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEGRADE BEFORE SUNRISE TO IFR, ESPECIALLY
AT KFLO AND KLBT WHERE CLEARING SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH
AIRPORTS BEGINNING BETWEEN 08-10Z AND LASTING AS LATE AS 13-14Z.
ALONG THE COAST THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG SOME, BUT EVEN HERE KILM, KMYR, AND KCRE HAVE
A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY AND SOME VERY
LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE.
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INLAND DURING
THE DAY. THERE'S LOW POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT KILM, KCRE,
KMYR MAINLY BETWEEN 17-22Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED, IF
ANY, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
RIDGE WESTWARD ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR SOUTH
ALLOWING A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SEAS WILL CONSIST
ALMOST ENTIRELY OF 8-SECOND 1-2 FT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS
WINDS INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, A SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF THE SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 3 FEET.
CLIMATE
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW
ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE
SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY
0.1F BELOW 2011 AND 2010 AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT
FROM AUGUST 29.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F (WITH TWO DAYS TO GO)
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ADDITIONALLY, AUGUST IS THE SECOND WETTEST ON RECORD FOR
WILMINGTON. WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL 15.0 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT
ILM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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