000
FXUS62 KILM 311825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS WEEK, AND
INCLUDED A SECOND KEY MESSAGE FOR THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. MARINE AND
AVIATION DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL BRING HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
H5 RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THE HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT TO THE AREA THAT MAY PROMPT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ABOUT 86-88F, AND
FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL FINALLY BRING RELIEF TO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT IS ABLE
TO MOVE THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND (EXACT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN) AND PROVIDED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY WE EXPERIENCE THIS WEEK IT WILL ALSO BRING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DEFINITELY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPPORT IN THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT WILL HELP SPARK MAINLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN
THE INLAND TERMINALS AND THE COAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE 18Z TAF SET OTHER THAN AT
KILM WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT. HRRR
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT IS
TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST CHANCES AT ILM GENERALLY AFTER 07Z TUE.
ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE 12-13Z WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED, IF ANY, TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY GIVEN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OFFSHORE RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FAR OFFSHORE
WILL ALLOW SW-SLY WINDS TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. AN INLAND
TROUGH, PLUS THE OFFSHORE HIGH, WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE A
NOTCH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD LEADING TO SOME LIGHT WLY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN DURING THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT,
AND AN INCREASE IN SEAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN INCREASED CHANCES ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF AUGUST 30TH - WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ITS
HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE
AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1F
BELOW 2011 AND 2010 AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM
AUGUST 30. THE FINAL TALLY WILL BE DETERMINED TOMORROW.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ADDITIONALLY, AUGUST IS THE SECOND WETTEST ON RECORD FOR
WILMINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN 15.0 INCHES RECORDED AT ILM THROUGH
AUGUST 30TH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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