102
FXUS62 KILM 011029
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-95. OTHERWISE,
12Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
OVERNIGHT UPDATE: HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-2 DEGREES, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL WE'LL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONE OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL BRING HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DESPITE STICKY MIDSUMMER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, SINKING AIR
WITHIN THE RIDGE SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO DEEP CONVECTION
AND ALLOW HEAT TO BUILD EACH DAY. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO
+21C RANGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR +22C WHICH COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F+ HEAT
INDEX) COULD BE ACHIEVED.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ERODES HEIGHTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT APPEARS IT MAY SUSTAIN
THE HEAT WAVE ONE ADDITIONAL DAY AS A RESERVOIR OF HOT AIR
ACROSS VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NC DRAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH DIVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY SHOULD
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY, POSSIBLY ARRIVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS MANY
DAYS OUT, IT APPEARS A BELT OF STRONGER NW WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD INCREASE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM
CELL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING LINES OF STORM WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS AS SATURDAY DRAWS CLOSER.
FORECAST POPS PEAK SATURDAY EVENING AT 40-50 PERCENT. FOR
SUNDAY, THE LATEST GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT FRONTAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NE TO E WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 80S AND
CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HAVE TEMPOS FOR MORNING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z, IFR/LIFR FOG
AND STRATUS. THEN WE'LL HAVE LIGHT WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY
TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH WIND 5-10 KTS. THERE'S THE CHANCE OF
FOG AT ALL TERMINALS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED, IF ANY, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY GIVEN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND
BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL WIND CHOP LEAVING AND 8-10 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AT 1-2 FOOT HEIGHT AS THE ONLY WAVE GROUP OF
NOTE.
THE BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY SHOULD ADD A
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP ON TOP OF THE SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
PRELIMINARILY, CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER OF 2026 WILL GO DOWN AS THE
THIRD HOTTEST SUMMER IN WILMINGTON'S CLIMATE RECORD THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO 1874. THE SIX WARMEST SUMMERS HAVE ALL
OCCURRED THIS CENTURY.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
ADDITIONALLY, AUGUST 2026 IS ALSO THE SECOND WETTEST AUGUST ON
RECORD FOR WILMINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN 15.01 INCHES RECORDED AT
ILM. THIS WAS DONE WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA
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