243
FXUS62 KILM 011850
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN COUNTY,
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY, AND ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES. ELSEWHERE,
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
"DIRTY RIDGE" NOTED ON THE LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE FEEDS, AIDED
BY A STEAMING HOT 594 DAM RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY PERCHED OVER
PARTS OF THE DEEP AND MID SOUTH. WHILE THIS RIDGE IS NOT
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS JUST YET, ITS SWEATY INFLUENCE
HAS ALREADY SHOVED INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. GOING INTO 2:30
PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON, OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 95F TO 103F.
THIS MISERABLE SUMMER HEAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY,
AND WILL IN FACT GET WORSE AS THE WEEKS WEARS ON. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S INLAND,
SOME 2-3 DEGREES HOTTER THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY. THROW IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, AND THAT'S A RECIPE FOR THE
HEAT INDEX TO SHOOT UP ABOVE 105, TRIGGERING A HEAT ADVISORY.
INDEED, SAID ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SC
AND SOUTHEAST NC, SANS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND
ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OUT AT 108F IN SOME
SPOTS.
VIRTUALLY THE SAME FORECAST IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT FOR THOSE DAYS, BUT DON'T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT CHANGE THROUGH TIME.
IF YOU WERE WONDERING, BY MY COUNT, THIS OFFICE HAS ONLY ISSUED
ONE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER (9/3/2020). MAKE
THAT TWO NOW, WITH MORE TO COME THIS WEEK.
BY THE WAY, HAPPY METEOROLOGICAL "FALL".
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO SINK
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT SOMETIME LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY
SUNDAY, STICKING AROUND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS GO CALM AGAIN BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING, REMAINING THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
MVFR FOG AT THE VERY LEAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. GET THE FEELING
THAT GUIDANCE IS NOT BEING AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH FOG, BUT
DIDN'T WANT TO DIVE DOWN TOO MUCH YET. WOULDN'T RULE OUT
IFR/LIFR FOG HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 13-14Z. SEABREEZE BRINGS A SSE WIND AT 8-10
KTS ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE REMAINS CONSISTENT
THROUGH FRIDAY, WAGGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SW TO SSW. SEAS
LINGER AT 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, GRADIENT
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BECOMING A SOLID MODERATE BREEZE, IF
NOT BRIEF PERIODS OF A FRESH BREEZE AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS
FROM SURF CITY, NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC FROM 20-60 NM
OFFSHORE. THIS GRADIENT COMES BACK DOWN BY SATURDAY MORNING,
GOING BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE BEFORE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE TO ENE, BUT STICK TO THE MODERATE
BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, PERHAPS SOME 4
FT WAVES THAT TRY TO SNEAK IN ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE BY LATE
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
PRELIMINARILY, CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER OF 2026 WILL GO DOWN AS THE
THIRD HOTTEST SUMMER IN WILMINGTON'S CLIMATE RECORD THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO 1874. THE SIX WARMEST SUMMERS HAVE ALL
OCCURRED THIS CENTURY.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
ADDITIONALLY, AUGUST 2026 IS ALSO THE SECOND WETTEST AUGUST ON
RECORD FOR WILMINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN 15.01 INCHES RECORDED AT
ILM. THIS WAS DONE WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
CLIMATE...ILM
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