608
FXUS62 KILM 100610
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AND HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED
100 DEGREES YET AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT/SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. EVEN TODAY SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAVORED AREAS. BY FRIDAY A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND OR MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
BOTH THE RIDGE AND TROUGH MAKE SLOW PROGRESS MAKE A SOGGY
WEEKEND IN THE OFFING. THE USUAL CAVEAT THAT IT ISN'T GOING TO
RAIN ALL DAY OR NIGHT HOLDS HERE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT APPEARS THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS UNDER BASICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED TODAY AND WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS IS NOT SURPRISING. THIS SIGNALS A RETURN TO
MOISTURE FOR THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 DEGREES OR SO BUT SOME LOWER 70S ARE AROUND AS WELL.
OVERALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TOWARD BR AND OR FOG
INLAND ESPECIALLY IN FLORENCE. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT OF THE
AVIATION FORECAST IS SOME PROB 30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THERE
IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR GROUND FOG, PARTICULARLY AFFECTING KLBT AND
KFLO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG TEN KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE DISTORTED BY CONVECTION AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER POPS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL OTHERWISE BE 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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