528
FXUS62 KILM 100958
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
558 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AND HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED
100 DEGREES YET AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT/SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. EVEN TODAY SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAVORED AREAS. BY FRIDAY A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND OR MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
BOTH THE RIDGE AND TROUGH MAKE SLOW PROGRESS MAKE A SOGGY
WEEKEND IN THE OFFING. THE USUAL CAVEAT THAT IT ISN'T GOING TO
RAIN ALL DAY OR NIGHT HOLDS HERE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT APPEARS THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS UNDER BASICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER REGARDING FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING (MAINLY AT KFLO) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AT
KFLO/KLBT) AS WELL AS SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING (MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AT KCRE/KMYR/KILM).
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THERE
IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR GROUND FOG, PARTICULARLY AFFECTING KLBT AND
KFLO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG TEN KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE DISTORTED BY CONVECTION AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER POPS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL OTHERWISE BE 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...RJB/SHK
MARINE...SHK
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