753
FXUS62 KILM 110635
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TRENDED COOLER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD EXCEED
100 DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY.
3) NEXT WEEK HAS TRENDED COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPING AREAS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DRIVEN ACTIVITY
EARLY TODAY THEN MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE LATER IN THE DAY.
THE HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM/SETUP OCCUR DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN LIKELY VALUES ARE IN PLACE. THE
FAVORED TIMES ARE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WESTERN AREAS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
THE SYSTEM...MEANDERING IN NATURE OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHEAR AND THUS ORGANIZED STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD
EXCEED 100 DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
ALMOST CAN'T REACH VALUES OF A FEW WEEKS AGO DUE TO THE
CONTINUING LOSS OF DAYLIGHT DEWPOINTS REMINISCENT OF A FEW
WEEKS AGO HAVE RETURNED AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES WILL
DEVELOP FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO HEAT RELATED HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY FROM JUST A
DAY OR SO AGO WHEN THE HEAT MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 2 WAS
SUPPOSED TO CONTINUE. NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONG RIDGE (HEAT
DOME) REMAINS TO THE WEST AND OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A COOLER NE
FLOW. HIGHS STILL FORMIDABLE JUST UNDER 90 DEGREES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO. KINDA SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND IS NOT FORECAST TO LEAD TO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY BUT WILL BE OF
LOW ENOUGH COVERAGE TO BE RELEGATED TO PROB30S AND TEND TO NOT
ADVECT NORTH AND EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT ILM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THERE
IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR GROUND FOG, PARTICULARLY AFFECTING KLBT AND
KFLO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SPRAWLING RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A DAY OR TWO OF A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN A BETTER DEFINED NE FLOW DEVELOPS. A
DECENT SURGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NE FLOW COULD WARRANT A
CLOSE LOOK AT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY
THIS FAR OUT WITH SURGES IS ALMOST NIL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK
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