261
FXUS62 KILM 131047
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECT LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH THE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER/DOWNTOWN ILM.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
2) A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AFTER A QUICK INITIAL ROUND OF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS OFF
THE COAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST (ALBEIT LOW)
CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALL LOCATIONS, BUT
THAT WILL BE CHANGING BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW
FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THUS ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AS WELL WITH SOME OF THE LOWER PWATS
THAT WE HAVE OBSERVED IN A WHILE. A FEW INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
UPPER 50S, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS WILL BE PATCHY AND
INTERMITTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE RISING TO VFR.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR. MAINTAINED VCTS
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED BREVITY AND LIMITED COVERAGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG AFFECTING KLBT AND KFLO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MORE STABLE AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH A NELY SURGE OF WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THAT WILL EXTEND INTO TUESDAY. THE NELY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THIS
TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH, OR WEAK LOW, MAY APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM THE E DURING THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH NELY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR. SEAS WILL
BUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE FETCH COUNTER TO THE GULF
STREAM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21/SRP
MARINE...SRP
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