808
FXUS62 KILM 140627
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
227 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO COASTAL
AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF WILL FOLLOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLE HEAT MAY BREAK RECORD HIGHS AT WILMINGTON AND
MYRTLE BEACH MONDAY. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING.
2) A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSEASONABLE HEAT MAY BREAK RECORD HIGHS AT
WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH MONDAY. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S ONE LAST TIME MONDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
LEAVING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL HOLD THE SEABREEZE BACK AND ALLOW HOT AIR TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO THE BEACHES. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 94 IN
WILMINGTON WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2010, AND OUR
FORECAST HIGH OF 92 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD
SET BACK IN 2020. FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF THEIR RECORDS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 INLAND, WITH SOME 101-103
READINGS POSSIBLE WITHIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY
PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS
SURFACE LIFT TAPS INTO THE WARM AND HUMID SURFACE LAYER.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE
SURFACE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. CAMS ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE
EXTENT OF SHOWERS, BUT LATEST HREF KEEPS POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND MAXIMIZES RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
THE COAST. FAVORED THIS DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
A REFRESHING SURGE OF COOLER, DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S, BUT THE REAL CHANGE WILL BE
APPARENT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUR FORECAST LOW TUESDAY NIGHT IN WILMINGTON IS 64, THE COOLEST
IN OVER 3 MONTHS!
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG AT COASTAL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INTENSIFY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE FOR WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
THE SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY.
DIRECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21/TRA
DISCUSSION...21/TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/TRA
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