490
FXUS62 KILM 150646
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE REGARDING THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO FORECAST
CHANGES WERE MINOR. INCREASED WINDS (MAINLY TODAY) AS THE SURGE
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT EXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THROUGH 3 PM. SURF ZONE HEADLINES REMAIN
UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NICELY
THROUGH NORTHEAST SC EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MIXING DURING
PEAK HEATING TODAY SHOULD BRING US INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A
WELCOMED SIGHT TO AN OTHERWISE HOT SEPTEMBER TO THIS POINT.
HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS TONIGHT; CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO 08Z AS DRIER AIR BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. VFR
THEREAFTER. STEADY GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE 10-15 KNOT NE WINDS
TODAY, GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME WITH ANY POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. THE FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RESIDES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A LATE-
WEEK SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS THE GRADIENT PINCHED. WINDS AND SEAS
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS TURN
EASTERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP
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