918
FXUS62 KILM 151814
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SURF CITY, NC TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET, SC OUT 20 NM. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES DOWN INTO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, JUST CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON.
ELSEWHERE, AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRIER AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
CHANCES.
- 2) SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRIER AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE
TO NO RAIN CHANCES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH
NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER. ENE TO NE FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER AT THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, AND DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOW-
TO-MID 60S FOR MOST. THERE ARE EVEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
PARTS OF THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, THANKS TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
CLEAR AND CALM WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON THROUGH THURSDAY. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE DOWN OVERALL, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL HANGING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. MAY HAVE SOME LOWS
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT IN THE COOL SPOTS OF BLADEN
AND PENDER COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY, WITH 90F COMING BACK INTO PLAY BY
THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOW-TO-MID
60S.
MORE EARNEST AIR MASS MODIFICATION TAKES HOLD ON FRIDAY, WHERE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BECOME THE THEME ONCE AGAIN
(MID-TO-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST). DEWPOINTS START COMING UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S, PERHAPS NEAR 70F IN SOME SPOTS. SOME LINGERING
ENERGY ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER
PARTS OF THE PEE DEE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL, THE
GRAND MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH, AND INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW KICKS UP AGAIN. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S RETURN THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK,
BUT ENOUGH TO AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND, MID 80S AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OUT OF THE
ENE UP TO 15-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON COME DOWN BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT, KEEPING A SLIGHT BREEZE
IN PLACE, ELIMINATING ANY FOG CONCERNS. ENE BREEZE PICKS BACK UP
TO NEAR 8-10 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ALL VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
LOW END CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND, DUE TO POSSIBLE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOG
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET, SC OUT 20 NM, BUT THE ADVISORY CONTINUES DOWN INTO
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL ENE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THOSE SPOTS.
FROM THERE, A FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE E TO NE WILL IMPROVE TO A
MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IMPROVING EVEN FURTHER
TO A GENTLE BREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS INITIALLY AT 3-5
FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, UP TO 6 FT OUT 60 NM
FROM SHORE. THESE SEAS IMPROVE TOWARDS 2-4 FT. BY FRIDAY, BRIEF
ONSHORE FLOW AT A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WILL QUICKLY FLIP BACK
TO E AND NE FLOW BY THE WEEKEND, GOING UP TOWARDS A MODERATE
BREEZE AT TIMES. SEAS RANGE FROM 1-2 FT OUT 20 NM TO UP TO 3 FT
OUT 60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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