788
FXUS62 KILM 230006
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
806 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION FOR RECENTLY ISSUED BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT WEDNESDAY FOR
EAST-FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, TURNING COOL AND CLOUDY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, TURNING COOL AND CLOUDY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VERY PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO HAS PLAGUED THE COAST THIS MORNING. THERE ARE RECENT SIGNS OF
THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DEVELOPING INLAND IN A MORE ORGANIZED
FASHION WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME HEATING. POPS COULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK WILL
PUSH A STRONG NE FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING ANY RAINFALL TO DRIZZLE
OR SPRINKLES AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S APPROACHING 80 ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHILE LOWS PEGGED INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. HIGH SURF IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BEACH EROSION,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS REGARDING MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD PRIOR TO A PASSING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING RISK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO WED
MORNING, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WITH EVEN A LOW RISK FOR LIFR CIGS.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MVFR CIGS TO THEN LINGER
THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN
SETS UP TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME, MAINLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE W/ NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST, BEFORE SPREADING INLAND THRU THE DAY WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR W/ OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
INTO THU MORNING, THEN LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE LATER THU THRU AT
LEAST FRI MORNING. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
MARINE
A VERY BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND IS EXPANDING IN SCOPE AS A CLASSIC REX BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND DOWN A SHIPMENT OF NE WINDS THAT
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INITIALLY THEN POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
PERSISTENT WITH THE WINDS WITH 6-8 FEET OUTER WATERS. THE SHADOW OF
CAPER FEAR WILL HOLD SEAS TO AROUND 4 FEET BUT NORTH OF THIS AREA
THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE IN PLAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/SHK
DISCUSSION...RJB/SHK
AVIATION...RJB/SHK
MARINE...SHK
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