380
FXUS62 KILM 231736
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE OVERALL FORECAST.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WATCHES ACROSS THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES, DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SPARCE TO COME BY AS MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXITING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING SEEMINGLY HAD CREATED THIS LULL IN BETWEEN. THE
CLOSED LOW ALTHOUGH NOT THE MOST PROLIFIC RAINMAKER UPSTREAM IS
PRODUCING SOME ACTIVITY AND THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE NE FLOW...STRONG AT TIMES WILL TAKE IT
FROM HERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY
EAST OF NC. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THAT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LEADING TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. STRONG NNE WINDS AND INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE
HIGH SURF IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS
REGARDING MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS COVERED THE ENTIRE
CWA TODAY AS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED POSSIBLY
DISTURBED EARLY THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRUDGE ACROSS. SOME
MIXING MAY OCCUR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BEYOND THIS PHASING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO POUR COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA UNDERCUTTING
THE WARMER ALOFT THUS STRATUS PERHAPS MAINLY MFR WILL REDEVELOP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CHANCE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MARINE
A POTENT NE FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS LOW PRESSURE
PHASES OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ESCAPE
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH HEALTHY GUSTS HOWEVER. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2-6 FEET TO 5-10 FEET (COAST TO OUTER
WATERS) IN TIME WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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