949
FXUS62 KILM 232300
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. HEADLINE SECTION
UPDATED FOR BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES, DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES, DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SPARSE TO COME BY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGHING
SEEMINGLY HAD CREATED THIS LULL IN BETWEEN. THE CLOSED LOW
ALTHOUGH NOT THE MOST PROLIFIC RAINMAKER UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING
SOME ACTIVITY AND THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NE FLOW...STRONG AT TIMES WILL TAKE IT
FROM HERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY
EAST OF NC. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THAT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LEADING TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. STRONG NNE WINDS AND INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE
HIGH SURF IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS
REGARDING MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BUT
PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY INLAND AT
KLBT/KFLO OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SOME MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES BUT SHOULDN'T POSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY N
WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES, MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST THU AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CHANCE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MARINE
A POTENT NE FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS LOW PRESSURE
PHASES OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ESCAPE
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH HEALTHY GUSTS HOWEVER. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2-6 FEET TO 5-10 FEET (COAST TO OUTER
WATERS) IN TIME WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...RJB/SHK
MARINE...SHK
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