763
FXUS62 KILM 242359
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION UPDATED FOR LATEST HEADLINE
CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER TO BRING A SLEW OF MARINE/BEACH HAZARDS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
2) AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS END TODAY, THE COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE
EARLY JUNE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOR'EASTER TO BRING A SLEW OF MARINE/BEACH
HAZARDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL INTENSIFY AND
ONLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN
INCREASINGLY LENGTHY AND STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH. WATER WILL BE
INCREASINGLY PILED INTO THE COAST AS A RESULT. PAIR THIS WITH
TIDES THAT ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LARGE ANYWAY DUE TO A FULL MOON
THE STAGE IS SET FOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES,
THE LARGEST OF WHICH WILL BE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY EVENING
AT WHICH TIME WATER LEVELS COULD BE A FULL FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW LARGE THE
MORNING TIDES WILL GET BUT THEY DO APPROACH FLOOD THRESHOLDS ESP
IN NC. LARGE WAVES WILL LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AT NC
BEACHES, SC BEACHES SHOULD BE SHIELDED ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH
EROSION, IF ANY AT ALL. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 12Z, WAVES STILL FALLING SLIGHTLY SHORT OF CRITERIA BUT THE
MARINE WIND FIELDS SHOULD KEEP INCREASING TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO NC'S LARGE BREAKING WAVES DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR BEACH HAZARDS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS END TODAY, THE COOLEST
AIRMASS SINCE EARLY JUNE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THE LOW WILL IN TIME MOVE
ACROSS AND OFFSHORE AND TEAM UP WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
BRING A BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. BY FRIDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S
OR SO.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS TO END OVERNIGHT
AS THE MID- LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND NOT IMPACT VSBYS MUCH, IF ANY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
COASTAL WATERS HEADLINES ARE ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN AND
NEED NO CHANGES. IT APPEARS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRUDGING ACROSS THE
AREA IS A BIT SLOWER WHICH WILL LATER ENHANCE THE WINDS WITH PHASING
OFFSHORE BUT GALE ENDING TIME STILL SEEM REASONABLE FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ108.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...TRA/SHK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page