113
FXUS62 KILM 250615
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH SOME
INLAND AREAS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY JUNE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COASTAL HAZARDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER
OFFSHORE.
2) A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY JUNE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COASTAL HAZARDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BANKED
TWO FEET OF WATER UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE. THIS PERSISTENT
TIDAL ANOMALY SHOULD CREATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY UP TO
0.6 FEET AT MYRTLE BEACH, UP TO 0.8 FEET AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH,
AND 0.5 FEET ON THE RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
IN ADDITION, LARGE 11 TO 12 SECOND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT THE PENDER AND NEW
HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES. THE SHALLOW WATER ON FRYING PAN SHOALS
IS SAPPING THIS SWELL OF MUCH OF ITS AMPLITUDE AND IS SHIELDING
BRUNSWICK COUNTY PLUS THE GRAND STRAND FROM THE WORST OF ITS
EFFECTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY JUNE.
SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE OVER 200 MILES EAST
OF THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FALL TO ZERO BY SUNRISE AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA, AS DRY
CANADIAN AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LAST TIME WILMINGTON HAD
FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES STAYED BELOW
80 ENDED ENDED MAY 5TH. (SAME STATISTIC FOR MYRTLE BEACH SHOWS
MAY 10TH)
EVEN MORE AMAZING WILL BE THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES: NOW
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE JUNE 3RD WHEN INLAND AREAS
SIMILARLY REACHED THE UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL MAY LINGER THROUGH
08-09Z, BUT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
EAST OF THE NC COAST WILL LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORNING GROUND FOG TUESDAY
AS SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS ONSHORE.
MARINE
THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM (39 KT AT THE
CORMP'S 41038 BUOY, 37 KT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY, 33 KT AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH) HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED AND A SLOW
TREND TOWARD IMPROVING MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TODAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE OVER 200 MILES
EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS ALREADY HAS A PRESSURE BELOW 1000
MILLIBARS AND SHOULD DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EAST
OF THE DELAWARE AND NJ COAST.
A FEW MORE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (34 KT) ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
CAPE FEAR AREA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM. ASSUMING THE WARNING
CAN COME DOWN THEN, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR A
LARGE 11-12 SECOND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS MAY BE IN THE CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE SWELL IS BEING BLOCKED BY SHOALING ON THE
SHALLOW WATER OF FRYING PAN SHOALS.
AFTER A FALL-LIKE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, STALLING NEARBY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054-
056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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