969
FXUS62 KILM 251802 AAC
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST MAIN PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COASTAL HAZARDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER
OFFSHORE.
2) A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY JUNE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BANKED TWO FEET OF WATER UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE.
THIS PERSISTENT TIDAL ANOMALY SHOULD CREATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY UP
TO 0.4 FEET AT MYRTLE BEACH, UP TO 0.9 FEET AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH,
AND 0.4 FEET ON THE RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH TIDE WILL BE THE LARGEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WE LOSE THE NORTH WINDS TO WESTERLY BY SUNDAY BUT THE BACKSWELL FROM
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUE WHILE THE MOON CONTINUES TO FILL (FULL MOON
IS SATURDAY).
IN ADDITION, LARGE 11 TO 12 SECOND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY AT THE PENDER AND
NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES. THE SHALLOW WATER ON FRYING PAN SHOALS
IS SAPPING THIS SWELL OF MUCH OF ITS AMPLITUDE AND IS SHIELDING
BRUNSWICK COUNTY PLUS THE GRAND STRAND FROM THE WORST OF ITS EFFECTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80 WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORNING GROUND FOG TUESDAY AS SHALLOW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS ONSHORE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE PERIOD LINGERING LONGER NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY FROM SEAS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS
DIMINISH AND SEAS FALL TO 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK/TRA
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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