629
FXUS62 KILM 252239
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR SC NEARSHORE WATERS CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COASTAL HAZARDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER
OFFSHORE.
2) A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY JUNE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE BANKED TWO FEET OF WATER UP AGAINST THE COASTLINE.
THIS PERSISTENT TIDAL ANOMALY SHOULD CREATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BY UP TO 0.4 FEET AT MYRTLE BEACH, UP TO 0.9 FEET AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH, AND 0.4 FEET ON THE RIVER IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH TIDE WILL BE
THE LARGEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE LOSE THE NORTH WINDS TO
WESTERLY BY SUNDAY BUT THE BACKSWELL FROM THE NOR'EASTER
CONTINUE WHILE THE MOON CONTINUES TO FILL (FULL MOON IS
SATURDAY).
IN ADDITION, LARGE 11 TO 12 SECOND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY AT THE PENDER AND
NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES. THE SHALLOW WATER ON FRYING PAN SHOALS
IS SAPPING THIS SWELL OF MUCH OF ITS AMPLITUDE AND IS SHIELDING
BRUNSWICK COUNTY PLUS THE GRAND STRAND FROM THE WORST OF ITS EFFECTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80 WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORNING GROUND FOG TUESDAY AS SHALLOW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS ONSHORE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NC
NEARSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS FALLING TO 3 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...RJB/SHK
MARINE...RJB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page