560
FXUS62 KILM 271738
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT
(7 PM - 10 PM EDT ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER,
SC TO SURF CITY, NC, AND 9 PM - 1 AM EDT ALONG THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON).
ELSEWHERE, NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) CANADIAN AIR WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND WARM UP THIS WEEK,
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UNUSUAL WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES CONTINUE ALONG MYRTLE BEACH AND
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH, DUE TO THE NOR'EASTER CURRENTLY HAMMERING ITS
WAY INTO NEW JERSEY. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH RECORDED A MAX WATER LEVEL
OF 7.26 FT MLLW AT 8:24 AM EDT THIS MORNING, WHICH RANKS AS THE 13TH
HIGHEST HISTORIC CREST ON RECORD. WATER LEVELS HAVE LIKELY REACHED
THEIR HIGHEST CREST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE,
AND WILL SLOWLY START COMING DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THOUGH THE SITUATION WILL IMPROVE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS
EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC TO SURF
CITY, NC FROM 7 PM - 10 PM EDT, ALONG WITH THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FROM 9 PM - 1 AM EDT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CANADIAN AIR WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND WARM UP THIS
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
ANOTHER VERY COOL FALL NIGHT ON THE WAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S INLAND, UPPER 50S AT THE COAST. THE RAWS STATION
IN BACK ISLAND, NC GOT DOWN TO 42F AT 6 AM THIS MORNING, AND I
ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR RESULT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
COOL SPOTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES.
THE NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND,
TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF MAINE LATE
TUESDAY. AIR MASS MODIFICATION CREATES A WARMING TREND STARTING ON
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SUBTLE AT FIRST. HIGHS GENERALLY GET INTO THE LOWER
80S, HOVERING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURES
THEN QUICKLY JET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE
DREADED 90F READINGS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE 60S AGAIN, AND EVEN
MORE MISERABLY, THE 70S AT THE COAST. WHILE HINTS OF SUMMER CONTINUE
TO THROW PUNCHES, SINKING AIR KILLS ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT SHAKY BY FRIDAY, AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES INTO PLAY. THE TRENDS HAVE MADE THIS MOSTLY
A WEEKEND ISSUE, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, SHOWERS MAY START
TO UNFOLD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UNCERTAINTY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOLIDLY VFR AND SKC THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OUT
OF THE WEST MAY APPROACH 17-20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CALM BY 21-22Z. LIGHT WNW WINDS TONIGHT, IF NOT COMPLETELY
CALM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WNW WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY
TO NEAR 5-6 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORNING GROUND
FOG TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...999 MB LOW PRESSURE COLLIDING INTO THE NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THEN LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BACKSWELL
AT 12 SECOND PERIOD WILL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE, SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FEET NEAR CAPE FEAR AND ONLY 2 FEET WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS AND SWELL BOTH DECREASE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, SOME TRULY IDEAL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY 1-2 FOOT SEAS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page