500
FXUS62 KILM 281026
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR ALL TIDAL AREAS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HIGH TIDES.
- 2) TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, ESPECIALLY
DURING DAYTIME HIGH TIDES.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH AT LEAST WED, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL GET REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
LATE WEEK LEADING TO A WARMING AND EVENTUAL MOISTENING TREND TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH 90S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN INLAND STARTING WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL A FEW MORE NIGHTS DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS AND PRETTY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING WED NIGHT BEFORE FALLING A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI WHEN LOW CHANCES RETURN WITH
A BIT BETTER CHANCES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STALLING FRONT
APPROACHES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES/TIMING/AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR. CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY,
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG EACH MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH JUST OFF THE
DE/NJ COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO DIMINISHING EAST-NORTHEAST BACKSWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AS WELL LEADING TO MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS
OVERALL. SEAS SHOULD BE 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM AND ONLY UP
TO 3 FT OUT TO 60 NM WITH WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB
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