271
FXUS62 KILM 281845
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC TO SURF CITY, NC
FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT, AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON, FROM 9 PM TO 2 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST UPDATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW
FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
- 2) WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH POSITIVE
TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DELIVER MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FLOODING WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MORE PRONOUNCED DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES, WHERE TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE A BIT HIGHER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT
TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC TO
SURF CITY, NC FROM 7 PM - 11 PM EDT, ALONG WITH THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON, FROM 9 PM - 2 AM
EDT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TUESDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND.
500 MB HEIGHTS START PICKING UP TUESDAY, WITH RIDGING STARTING
TO POKE UP FROM THE GULF. THIS KICKS OFF THE START OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT APPEAR TO LAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK
FOR MOST. HIGHS AROUND 90F APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH THOSE CHANCES SOLIDIFYING MORE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (COULD POTENTIALLY BE 90-92F IN SOME
SPOTS). MOISTURE PARAMETERS PICK UP AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS
SOARING INTO THE 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY IN PARTICULAR
COULD BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HEAT
INDEX CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 95 IN SOME SPOTS (IN OCTOBER, MIND
YOU).
PATTERN STARTS TO FLIP BY SATURDAY. THE HEAT RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH OFFSHORE, WHILE A VERY BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE PNW ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS OFF THE BROAD
TROUGH AND WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY, BUT NOTHING APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME. THESE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO GET A BIT MORE
BULLISH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS PART OF THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST AMPLIFIES AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS A
MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM. STILL MUCH TO DEBATE ABOUT THE
TIMING AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH WHAT KIND OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXPECT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOLIDLY VFR AND SKC THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE AT
KCRE AND KMYR IS KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE SE TO S AT 5-6 KTS, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO PAINT SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KCRE AND
KMYR BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT ULTIMATELY THINK THE
ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY RIGHT NOW TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SAID WEAK SEABREEZE MAY TRY TO RETURN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOG
MIGHT BECOME A BIT MORE OF AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNINGS,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARNEST RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO PLAY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE
MORE ORGANIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENTLE BREEZE THAT
FLUCTUATES A BIT OUT OF THE E TO S DURING THE DAYTIME, BECOMING
A MORE VARIABLE LIGHT BREEZE AT NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT 1-2 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME 3 FT WAVES TRYING TO SNEAK
INTO THE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN LIGHT
WIND CHOP, LOOK FOR A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AT
10-13 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page