112
FXUS62 KILM 291034
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED, ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MESSAGING HAVE BEEN MADE. ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING TODAY'S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE.
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH
TIDE TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
- 2) WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH
TIDE TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
ALTHOUGH POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DIMINISHING, HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MORE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING TODAY'S
DAYTIME HIGH TIDE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AFTER TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MORE TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TUESDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND.
500 MB HEIGHTS START PICKING UP TUESDAY, WITH RIDGING STARTING
TO POKE UP FROM THE GULF. THIS KICKS OFF THE START OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT APPEAR TO LAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK
FOR MOST. HIGHS AROUND 90F APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH THOSE CHANCES SOLIDIFYING MORE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (COULD POTENTIALLY BE 90-92F IN SOME
SPOTS). MOISTURE PARAMETERS PICK UP AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS
SOARING INTO THE 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY IN PARTICULAR
COULD BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HEAT
INDEX CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 95 IN SOME SPOTS (IN OCTOBER, MIND
YOU).
PATTERN STARTS TO FLIP BY SATURDAY. THE HEAT RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH OFFSHORE, WHILE A VERY BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE PNW ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS OFF THE BROAD
TROUGH AND WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY, BUT NOTHING APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME. THESE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO GET A BIT MORE
BULLISH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS PART OF THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST AMPLIFIES AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS A
MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM. STILL MUCH TO DEBATE ABOUT THE
TIMING AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH WHAT KIND OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXPECT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR DURING THE DAY WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT
FOR WEAK 5-10 KT SSE SEA BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MOIST LAYER IS
QUITE THIN AND CONFINED TO THE SURFACE WITH AMPLE DRY AIR RIGHT
ABOVE IT. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ANY FOG TO BE SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO AVIATION, AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW (OUTSIDE OF MVFR VSBYS AT KCRE DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO ICW). WILL REEVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL WITH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MODERATE RISK FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW RISK FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AND MODERATE RISK SAT.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENTLE BREEZE THAT
FLUCTUATES A BIT OUT OF THE E TO S DURING THE DAYTIME, BECOMING
A MORE VARIABLE LIGHT BREEZE AT NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT 1-2 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME 3 FT WAVES TRYING TO SNEAK
INTO THE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN LIGHT
WIND CHOP, LOOK FOR A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AT
10-13 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/IGB
DISCUSSION...RJB/IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB
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