443
FXUS62 KILM 291833
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
233 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON, FROM 11 PM TO 2
AM EDT.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST UPDATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW
FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
- 2) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED
AT THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, BUT HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE STILL LINGERING, THANKS TO THE FULL MOON
FROM THREE DAYS AGO. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH GOT CLOSE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, BUT
DIDN'T QUITE GET THERE. MYRTLE BEACH BARELY HIT THE THRESHOLDS
FOR ABOUT 45 MINUTES OR SO. THINKING THOSE AREAS WILL GET CLOSE
AGAIN DURING TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, BUT SHOULD STAY SHORT, AS THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WAS THIS MORNING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM - 2 AM EDT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES HAVE INCREASED TODAY, IN
PART DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP A FAIR AMOUNT TODAY, WITH
OBSERVATIONS HOVERING IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AS OF 2:30 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING THE
WARMING TREND AROUND. TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO
EVERYDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS AROUND 90F APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH THOSE CHANCES
SOLIDIFYING MORE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (COULD POTENTIALLY BE
90-92F IN SOME SPOTS). MOISTURE PARAMETERS PICK UP AS WELL,
WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY IN
PARTICULAR COULD BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE HEAT INDEX CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 93-95 IN SOME SPOTS (IN
OCTOBER, MIND YOU).
PATTERN STARTS TO FLIP BY SATURDAY. THE HEAT RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH OFFSHORE, WHILE A VERY BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE PNW ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS OFF THE BROAD
TROUGH AND WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY, BUT NOTHING APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME. THESE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO GET A BIT MORE
BULLISH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS PART OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST AS A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM. STILL MUCH TO
DEBATE ABOUT THE TIMING AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH WHAT KIND OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXPECT.
WHAT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT IS A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN COMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE 70S. BRING
BACK A MORE LEGITIMATE FALL!
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT ALONG THE COAST ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE PASSES. EASTERLY FLOW POST SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GOOD BIT OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS MVFR/IFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS AROUND
75%, IDEALLY WOULD WANT TO SEE AOA 90%. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE
925MB MOISTURE UNDER 70%, AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE 90-95% IN THAT
LAYER. SO WHAT MAY END UP HAPPENING IS VISIBILITY DROPS TO 2-4SM FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THEN COMES BACK INTO THE 5-10SM RANGE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN WITH THE CYCLE REPEATING, MUCH
LIKE CRE DID LAST NIGHT. NOT SURE DURATION WOULD EVEN BE LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A TEMPO AND IT COULD BE ARGUED THE DEPTH OF THE FOG WILL
PREVENT IT FROM BEING OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT EVEN IF THE REPORTED
VISIBILITY IS MVFR/IFR. SOMETHING SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A 4/5SM GROUP FOR ALL SITES, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILING POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENTLE BREEZE THAT
FLUCTUATES A BIT OUT OF THE E TO S DURING THE DAYTIME, BECOMING
A MORE VARIABLE LIGHT BREEZE AT NIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHEN VERY
SLIGHTLY UP TO A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSE BY SUNDAY. SEAS
REMAIN AT 1-2 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME 3 FT
WAVES TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN BETWEEN LIGHT WIND CHOP, LOOK FOR A PERSISTENT LONG
PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 10-14 SECONDS, AND A SECONDARY
EASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...IGB
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