662
FXUS62 KILM 070003
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 HAS OFFICIALLY FORMED IN THE GULF, WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY. NEXT NAME ON THE LIST IS ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED "EES-AH-
EE-AHS").
NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE CAROLINAS, BUT WE DO EXPECT
THERE TO BE A LOT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE
AREA. VERY RAINY FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE HIT 8 PM EDT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE
REGION DRY AND SEASONABLE.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND SEASONABLE.
MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRI. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY RETURN NEAR NORMAL
WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING.
ANTICIPATED TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH A LARGE AND QUITE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING
OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DAYS OUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP OVER
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE IN A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE CITING THE MOISTURE
AND THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
OFFSHORE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IS
PRODUCING ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO CREATE SOME VFR CEILINGS OF
4000-6000 FT AT THE COAST. SKC INLAND NEAR KFLO AND KLBT. NE
WINDS AT 4-6 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
CALMING BY 21-22Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT CEASING AT 3 AM. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FROM THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BECOMING VERY LIGHT BY
THURSDAY. BY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH
4-6 FEET THIS EVENING FALLING TO 2-3 FEET BY THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/III/SHK
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