100
FXUS62 KILM 070629
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
229 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY.
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DRY, SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND CONFIDENCE
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LIMITED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEKEND, TANGENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH RECENTLY FORMED TD 9. WHILE
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND, SEEMS
UNLIKELY, THE STORM WILL HELP LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEEKEND WITH RAIN ARRIVING SAT, SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
BIG QUESTION, AND STILL A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE RAINFALL
TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2" AND AS HIGH AS 2.5" DURING
THE EVENT.
THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF RIDGING AT 5H TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
SHAPE WHERE THE TROPICAL PLUME IS DIRECTED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE 3 MAJOR ENSEMBLES (CMC/EC/GFS INCLUDING THE AI VARIANTS)
CONTINUE TO SHOW PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN
2" AT 50% OR LESS WITH MINIMAL PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 4". HOWEVER, JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AS WELL AS
FARTHER OFFSHORE, THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. DESPITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA DAILY RECORD MAX VALUES SAT INTO
SUN, ONCE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFT
NORTH SAT NIGHT, FORCING IS LIMITED AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. ON SUN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
GOING BACK TO THE KEY MESSAGE, HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS AT PLAY AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA END UP WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (IN EXCESS OF
3"), IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE BULK OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS AS BETTER SAMPLING OF
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TD 9 HELPS, ALLOWING FOR REFINEMENTS TO
THE SPECIFICS OF THIS WEEKEND'S FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. REMAINS OF A FRONT OFFSHORE CONTINUE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST, TAKING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT THAT HAD PRODUCED SOME BKN/OVC 4000 FT
CEILINGS HAS SHIFTED INLAND, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
MARINE
DECREASING NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO FALL UNDER 6 FT AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ENDED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE DECREASING INTO THU, WITH FLOW REMAINING NORTHEAST. BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS THU/FRI BEFORE GRADIENT STARTS TO RESPOND TO WHAT
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IN NO DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 9, BUT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL START
INCREASING FRI NIGHT AND BY SAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED
AS PROLONGED, ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW BUILDS SEAS. WINDS WILL VEER
TO EAST SAT NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR SUN. PEAK GRADIENT
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SAT NIGHT, WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT HELPING
PUSH HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE WELL INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SO WHILE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL THU/FRI EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
QUICKLY TURN TREACHEROUS THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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