637
FXUS62 KILM 071852
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. THE SPEED AND TRACK OF ISAIAS WILL
INFLUENCE HOW QUICKLY RAIN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
TREND IS A FASTER AND FURTHER EAST LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLIER START TO RAIN ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LIMITED.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LIMITED.
ALL EYES ARE ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE QUESTIONS REMAIN AROUND ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY,
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GULF WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE
AREA, ITS ATTENDANT DRY AIR ALOFT LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG
IT WILL TAKE FOR RAINFALL TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. TYPICALLY, THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPS MEASURABLE RAIN AT BAY FOR LONGER
THAN MODELS SUGGEST, WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY'S DAYTIME
DRY, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
(WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES). THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAIAS WILL
INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, WITH A FASTER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK LEADING
TO RAIN STARTING EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
BEYOND THE START TIME OF RAIN, AMOUNTS ALSO CARRY LIMITED CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SET UP. IN GENERAL, IT
APPEARS COASTAL AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS, MAINLY IN
THE RANGE OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHILE
INLAND AREAS SEE LESS, MAINLY AROUND 0.5-1.5 INCHES. THE PRESENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2-
2.5", LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR BANDS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS, MAINLY FOCUSED FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHERE THESE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCUR, RAINFALL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 4-6" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINBANDS TO STAY
OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MULTIPLE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BOTH HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TIMING OF THE MARINE IMPACTS.
LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES BEFORE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS PILE WATER UP AGAINST THE COAST, BRINGING THE
THREAT TO ALL BEACHES STARTING WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT. ALTHOUGH CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL
NIGHT TONIGHT, ABUNDANT DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHALLOW GROUND FOG FROM GROWING VERTICALLY. OTHERWISE, BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE BACK IN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS ARE LIKELY STARTING EITHER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WORKS DOWNWARD. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING INTO THURSDAY, WITH FLOW
REMAINING NORTHEASTERLY. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN ISAIAS
AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST US.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL START INCREASING ON FRIDAY AND HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS EXCEED 25 KTS
AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY. PEAK GRADIENT WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SO WHILE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY TURN TREACHEROUS THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW
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