956
FXUS62 KILM 081937
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8 PM EDT AND 10 PM EDT. GALE WATCH ISSUED
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT FORECAST CHANGES, PRIMARILY RELATED TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. EXPANDED ON POTENTIAL COASTAL HAZARDS NOW THAT
MODELS PROVIDE SOME CLARITY ON TIMING OF THE STRONGEST GRADIENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.
2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTHWARD TURN IMMINENTLY. THE STORM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF THROUGH FORECASTED
LANDFALL ON FRIDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY, BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK THROUGH A STUBBORN DRY LAYER WITH HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE ONSET OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A FORECAST CHALLENGE. DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO BULLISH ON PRECIP ONSET, SO THE LATEST
FORECAST PUSHES THE START TIME A FEW HOURS LATER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. WPC QPF CLUSTER ANALYSIS EVEN SHOWS 2 OF THE 4
CLUSTERS WITH NO QPF FOR THE WILMINGTON AREA UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN POINTS OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT
TO BEGIN, SO SATURDAY PLANS SHOULD BE MINIMALLY IMPACTED. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CARRY LIMITED CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL,
IT APPEARS COASTAL AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS.
LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A MEAN OF 2-4 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST, 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF I-95, AND
AROUND 2 INCHES WESTWARD. LATEST HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE
STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE,
THESE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAIN
RATES AND ENHANCED TOTALS. THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
IMPACTING MODEL SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRIVING RAW QPF MODEL
OUTPUT TO SOME EXTREME VALUES AT THE COAST. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC, WE LIMITED THE QPF INCREASE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RELATIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS INCLUDES A
MENTION OF 4-6 INCHES AT THE COAST (WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE
GENERALIZED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION). NOTE THAT ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR LARGER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AROUND A HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL HIGH TIDE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW ALSO BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT, LESS SO INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING WATERSPOUTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO POOR INSTABILITY AND RELATIVE
DISTANCE FROM THE STORM CENTER. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY,
BUT ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISOLATED WITH THE ADDITION OF DRY AIR.
THIS COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE INSTABILITY NEAR THE END OF THE
EVENT, EARLY SUNDAY.
ISAIAS WILL MERGE INTO THE BACKGROUND 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY.
DRY AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY
PUSH A TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST FORECAST EXTENDS
RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. NBM IS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP TOO
LONG AT THIS STAGE, LIKELY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL
MODELS. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE STILL APPARENT IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF,
STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AND LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
LATE FRIDAY, PEAKING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BREAKING WAVES IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF IN
COMBINATION WITH STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. LINGERING ROUGH SURF IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, EVEN AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. BEACH
EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEW MOON. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING, SUNDAY MORNING, AND SUNDAY EVENING. AREA BEACHES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THESE
TIDAL CYCLES. THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
MOST IMPACTFUL FOR THESE AREAS, BUT EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
SEE MARINE SECTION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A
WEAK COASTAL INFLUENCE. GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE, MAINLY AT THE COAST
DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS DUE TO
GOOD MIXING TODAY. CIRRUS WILL MAINTAIN BKN TO OVC SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING,
OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY STARTING EITHER SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WORKS
DOWNWARD. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY RAIN,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BUILDS A WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
LATE FRIDAY AS ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS
A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED. SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE GALE WATCH, BUT THIS
PERIOD OF TIME APPEARS TO BE SHORT ENOUGH TO FORGO THE SCA FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SC NEARSHORE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST WIND PROBS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED GALES AND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
WIND GUST PROBABILITIES DROPPING TO JUST ABOVE 50% AS YOU
APPROACH THE COASTLINE. WINDS AND SEAS PROGRESS QUICKLY WITH THE
NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND
OFFSHORE GALES ENDING EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY ON
SATURDAY TO 6-8 FEET FOR NEARSHORE AREAS AND 8-10 FEET OFFSHORE
BY LATE SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT DEVELOPS. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO EXCEED 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21
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