742
FXUS62 KILM 091834
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
234 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE THE KEY MESSAGES REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE DETAILS NOTED IN THEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AND PERSIST AT TIMES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AND
PERSIST AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG GULF THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH IT
REMAINS FAR TO THE WEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. AS UVVS INCREASE DURING SATURDAY WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
EXPANDING OVERHEAD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT, THERE ARE SOME SCENARIOS THAT DEPICT PWATS APPROACHING 2.4
TO 2.5 INCHES DURING SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RIVAL THE HIGHEST
PWATS AT THE CHS RAOB FOR THIS TIME IN OCTOBER. WHILE MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS THE HREF IS SHOWING A COUPLE MAX AREAS GREATER
THAN 10" JUST OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY
OF SOME OF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL AMOUNTS FEEL IT IS BEST TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND COLUMBUS
COUNTY TO START WITH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL IS
SIMILAR ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC HIGHLIGHTED
BY A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A MARGINAL RISK IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL AT THAT TIME. DEEPER DRYING DURING SUNDAY WILL
IMPACT THE AREAL EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO BREAKERS EXCEEDING 5 FT IN THE SURF ZONE, ALONG
WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISKS. WAVE-RUNUP MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR
TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE BEACHES WITH A
WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING.
ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH TIDE STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
SEE MARINE SECTION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH SLOWLY
LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT, STARTING AT COASTAL TERMINALS
FIRST. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE, SO LOWER CIGS AND RAIN HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST. ONCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP, RAPID
DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IFR EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD
RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ISAIAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING FARTHER INLAND AFTER
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DURING SATURDAY EVENING AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY AREAS OF CONVECTION. WHILE
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE MARGINALLY AT OR BELOW GALE FORCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUPPORT REPLACING THE GALE WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING. SEAS WILL BECOME STEEPER AND INCREASE TO 7
TO 10 FT, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. THE FLOW WILL FINALLY VEER TO AN
OFFSHORE DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING WITH
IMPROVING MARITIME CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY. AT SOME POINT THE
GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED IN FAVOR OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, POSSIBLY DURING SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ099-105>110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SRP
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