718
FXUS62 KILM 100026
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
826 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERAL COASTAL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR
SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
BEACHES FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING SATURDAY MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS
IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING BEACHES, WITH A STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT (AND MODERATE RIP RISK) FOR S-FACING BEACHES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AND PERSIST AT TIMES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AND
PERSIST AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG GULF THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH IT
REMAINS FAR TO THE WEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. AS UVVS INCREASE DURING SATURDAY WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
EXPANDING OVERHEAD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT, THERE ARE SOME SCENARIOS THAT DEPICT PWATS APPROACHING 2.4
TO 2.5 INCHES DURING SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RIVAL THE HIGHEST
PWATS AT THE CHS RAOB FOR THIS TIME IN OCTOBER. WHILE MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS THE HREF IS SHOWING A COUPLE MAX AREAS GREATER
THAN 10" JUST OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY
OF SOME OF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL AMOUNTS FEEL IT IS BEST TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND COLUMBUS
COUNTY TO START WITH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL IS
SIMILAR ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC HIGHLIGHTED
BY A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A MARGINAL RISK IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL AT THAT TIME. DEEPER DRYING DURING SUNDAY WILL
IMPACT THE AREAL EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO BREAKERS EXCEEDING 5 FT IN THE SURF ZONE, ALONG
WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISKS. WAVE-RUNUP MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR
TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE BEACHES WITH A
WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING.
ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH TIDE STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
SEE MARINE SECTION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO NE SC AS EARLY AS 10-11Z.
THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND
TERMINALS. 0Z TAFS CARRY PREDOMINANT SUB-VFR CIGS AROUND
800-1200 FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY
THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE, VERSUS WIDESPREAD,
AND COULD SEE BOUNCING OF CIGS BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR DURING
THE DAY. THIS MAY BE HANDLED WITH THE ADDITION OF TEMPOS DURING
LATER TAFS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT, WITH HIGH
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED LOWER
VSBYS IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL BE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR I-95 TERMINALS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, TURNING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND
AROUND 25 KTS INLAND SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY
AIR FILTERS IN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ISAIAS WHICH WILL BE MOVING FARTHER INLAND AFTER
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DURING SATURDAY EVENING AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY AREAS OF CONVECTION. WHILE
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE MARGINALLY AT OR BELOW GALE FORCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUPPORT REPLACING THE GALE WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING. SEAS WILL BECOME STEEPER AND INCREASE TO 7
TO 10 FT, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. THE FLOW WILL FINALLY VEER TO AN
OFFSHORE DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING WITH
IMPROVING MARITIME CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY. AT SOME POINT THE
GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED IN FAVOR OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, POSSIBLY DURING SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ106-108.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
SCZ054-056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SRP
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