672
FXUS62 KILM 100720
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER
HAZARDS ARE THE SAME AS BEFORE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. ISAIAS WENT POST-TROPICAL AS OF 2 AM
EDT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- 2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- 3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH
FLOODING AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11
AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PENDER, NEW HANOVER, BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS,
HORRY, AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE
LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN, FL, AROUND 9:30 PM EDT ON FRIDAY, OCTOBER
9, 2026, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH AND AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB.
SINCE THEN, THE HURRICANE HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED, AND HAS
OFFICIALLY TURNED POST-TROPICAL AS OF THE 2 AM EDT ADVISORY
UPDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINS FAR TO THE WEST, ISAIAS CONTINUES TO
BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL AID IN HEAVY RAINBANDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE
PICKING UP, LINGERING BETWEEN 1.4-1.9" ACROSS THE AREA. A
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN, WHERE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE SHOWS PWATS UP TO 2.4-2.5" TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
RIVAL THE HIGHEST PWATS AT THE CHS RAOB FOR THIS TIME IN
OCTOBER.
DESPITE THESE DRENCHED PWATS, THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE RECORDED. HREF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, RANGING FROM AROUND HALF AN
INCH TO 5+ INCHES. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON WHAT KIND OF RAINBANDS
WE'LL SEE, AND WHERE EXACTLY THEY SET UP. THE GENERAL IDEA IS
STILL ON TRACK, WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE COASTAL AREAS, HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL IS SIMILAR ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC HIGHLIGHTED BY A MARGINAL (1 OF
5) RISK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT (2 OF
5) RISK IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL AT THAT
TIME. DEEPER DRYING ON SUNDAY WILL IMPACT THE AREAL EXTENT OF
ANY CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
HAZARDS IN EFFECT:
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY, NC TO
GEORGETOWN COUNTY, SC.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT TO 12 PM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL EAST-FACING BEACHES.
- A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR A STRONG EAST TO WEST
LONGSHORE CURRENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTY BEACHES.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WAVE-RUNUP MAY ALSO CAUSE
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE BEACHES WITH
A WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EDT SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER, SC OUT 60 NM.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL MOSTLY PREVAILING
TO OPEN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS KCRE AND KMYR. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY
LATE MORNING FOR KFLO AND KLBT. OVERALL, THINK MOST OF THE CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY
THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE, VERSUS WIDESPREAD, AND
COULD SEE BOUNCING OF CIGS BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR DURING THE DAY.
THIS MAY BE HANDLED WITH THE ADDITION OF TEMPOS BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THE 12Z AND 18Z TAFS.
RAIN IS SLOWLY STARTING TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH HIGH CHANCES
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED LOWER VSBYS IN THE
TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL BE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
I-95 TERMINALS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING,
TURNING EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND AROUND 25 KTS INLAND. GUSTS INLAND START TO
COME DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS VEERING A BIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CONTINUES, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO KILM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INLAND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA, AND POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS,
WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL TODAY. THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THIS EVENING,
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE MARGINALLY AT OR BELOW GALE FORCE,
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUPPORT A GALE WARNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME STEEPER AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 FT, ESPECIALLY UP TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. THE FLOW WILL FINALLY
VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING WITH IMPROVING MARITIME CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY. AT
SOME POINT, THE GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED IN FAVOR
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, POSSIBLY DURING SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NCZ099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TODAY FOR NCZ107.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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