463
FXUS62 KILM 101836
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH FEW CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
- 2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- 3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING DUE IN PART TO
DIABATIC HEATING FROM RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH BY 00 UTC AS THE MOVEMENT REMAINS
SLOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WEDGE TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT. THE PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTIC WILL THEN SHIFT FROM
MORE STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE AT THIS TIME. THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE FACT THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL WITH IN BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. POPS OVERALL REMAIN HIGH BUT EXPECT A LULL TONIGHT FROM
NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORESO TORNADOES REMAINS IN PLACE DUE
TO SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE WARM FRONT
HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO INGEST THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS CITING THE
ROTATING CELLS OFFSHORE TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BASICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT THE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER HAS HIGH NUMBERS FOR THIS TIME
TOMORROW ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND THE TIMING OF DAY IF FAVORABLE AS IS
THE BANDING FEATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 7 FT
EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WAVE-RUNUP MAY
ALSO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE
BEACHES WITH A WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR PEAK FOR THIS SYSTEM WIND SPEEDS AND
ESPECIALLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT THE WARNING TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY. THE MARINE COMMUNITY
SHOULD BE AWARE OF PERHAPS A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING OR TWO BEING
ISSUED FOR ROTATING CELLS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
REMAIN TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS OBVIOUSLY SLOW MOVING AND
CURRENTLY IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY EASTWARD. LIGHTNING MAY BE HARD TO COME BY ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME ESPECIALLY LATER
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INLAND WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256-280-
284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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