783
FXUS62 KILM 102226
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEAST SC COASTAL
WATERS, AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE-FORCE, AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE
WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST NC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
- 2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- 3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING DUE IN PART TO
DIABATIC HEATING FROM RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH BY 00 UTC AS THE MOVEMENT REMAINS
SLOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WEDGE TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT. THE PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTIC WILL THEN SHIFT FROM
MORE STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE AT THIS TIME. THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE FACT THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL WITH IN BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. POPS OVERALL REMAIN HIGH BUT EXPECT A LULL TONIGHT FROM
NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORESO TORNADOES REMAINS IN PLACE DUE
TO SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE WARM FRONT
HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO INGEST THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS CITING THE
ROTATING CELLS OFFSHORE TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BASICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT THE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER HAS HIGH NUMBERS FOR THIS TIME
TOMORROW ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND THE TIMING OF DAY IF FAVORABLE AS IS
THE BANDING FEATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 7 FT
EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WAVE-RUNUP MAY
ALSO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE
BEACHES WITH A WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SE NC WATERS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR PEAK FOR THIS SYSTEM WIND
SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT THE
WARNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY. THE
MARINE COMMUNITY SHOULD BE AWARE OF PERHAPS A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING OR TWO BEING ISSUED FOR ROTATING CELLS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN AS THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS REMAIN TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS OBVIOUSLY
SLOW MOVING AND CURRENTLY IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. LIGHTNING MAY BE HARD TO COME
BY ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME
ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INLAND WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SE NC WATERS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR PEAK FOR THIS SYSTEM WIND
SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT THE
WARNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY. THE
MARINE COMMUNITY SHOULD BE AWARE OF PERHAPS A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING OR TWO BEING ISSUED FOR ROTATING CELLS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-280.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page