285
FXUS62 KILM 110007
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
807 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEAST SC COASTAL
WATERS, AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE-FORCE, AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE
WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST NC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM THIS
EVENING.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES FOR SUNDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 6 FEET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
- 2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- 3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING DUE IN PART TO
DIABATIC HEATING FROM RAINFALL. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH BY 00 UTC AS THE MOVEMENT REMAINS
SLOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WEDGE TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT. THE PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTIC WILL THEN SHIFT FROM
MORE STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE AT THIS TIME. THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE FACT THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL WITH IN BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. POPS OVERALL REMAIN HIGH BUT EXPECT A LULL TONIGHT FROM
NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORESO TORNADOES REMAINS IN PLACE DUE
TO SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE WARM FRONT
HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO INGEST THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS CITING THE
ROTATING CELLS OFFSHORE TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BASICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT THE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER HAS HIGH NUMBERS FOR THIS TIME
TOMORROW ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND THE TIMING OF DAY IF FAVORABLE AS IS
THE BANDING FEATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 7 FT
EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WAVE-RUNUP MAY
ALSO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE
BEACHES WITH A WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. ROUGH SURF MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SE NC WATERS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR PEAK FOR THIS SYSTEM WIND
SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT THE
WARNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY. THE
MARINE COMMUNITY SHOULD BE AWARE OF PERHAPS A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING OR TWO BEING ISSUED FOR ROTATING CELLS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS AT CRE AND MYR
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO 500FT INLAND OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY NE SC
INCLUDING KFLO. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
WITH BEST CHANCE AT KILM. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STILL IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THESE USING PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. SKIES WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE
SUNDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SE NC WATERS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR PEAK FOR THIS SYSTEM WIND
SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT THE
WARNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY. THE
MARINE COMMUNITY SHOULD BE AWARE OF PERHAPS A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING OR TWO BEING ISSUED FOR ROTATING CELLS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ054>056-058-059.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-280.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SHK
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