869
FXUS62 KILM 110706
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. ALL OTHER
HAZARDS REMAIN ON TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS AT TIMES INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.
- 2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- 3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS AT
TIMES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING
AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR PENDER, NEW HANOVER, BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS, HORRY, AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES.
WARM FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA, PER DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS. A LACKADAISICAL LINE OF SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS BEEN SWEEPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA,
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PEE DEE AND NC COASTAL
PLAIN REGIONS.
ADMITTEDLY, EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE I'VE LOOKED AT HAS BEEN
ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE IN HANDLING THIS SETUP. WARM FROPA WAS
SUPPOSED TO IGNITE INSTABILITY AND CREATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT THAT NEVER MATERIALIZED. I
DON'T THINK I'VE SEEN A SINGLE FLASH OF LIGHTNING OVER LAND, AND
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A SMALL HANDFUL OF STRIKES OVER THE WATERS
60-80 NM OFFSHORE. I BELIEVE THE CAD WEDGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT
WON THE BATTLE OVER THE WARM FRONT AND KEPT IN FAR MORE
STABILITY THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING. EVEN NOW AFTER 2 AM EDT, THE
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE TRYING TO BLOW UP STORMS THAT ARE
NOT REPRESENTED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, DESPITE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN RAIN.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WHILE THE STAGE IS
SET FOR ONE MORE LINE OF RAIN THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON (SAID LINE IS
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN GA).
HERE WE SIT AGAIN WITH THE FRUSTRATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. ON
ONE HAND, THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF FLASH
FLOODING. MEANWHILE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CAPABLE OF A
TORNADO THREAT. PLENTY OF LOW LCLS TO GO AROUND, SBCAPE WILL BE
ON THE RISE AFTER THE SUN RISES, AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY PUSH ABOVE
150 M2/S2 AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES THROUGH. YET ON THE
OTHER HAND, GUIDANCE HANDLING THIS EVENT EXTREMELY POORLY
DOESN'T GIVE ME MUCH CONFIDENCE MOVING FORWARD HERE. WILL BE
CURIOUS TO SEE HOW MUCH THE SBCIN AND MLCIN HOLDS ON AS THE SUN
RISES AND THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THE TORNADO AND FLOODING
THREATS STILL CANNOT BE IGNORED, GENERALLY FROM 8 AM - 4 PM EDT
TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH, DRY AIR WILL START TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST DRIES OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. DRY FORECAST LOOKS
TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
HAZARDS IN EFFECT:
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EDT TO 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY,
NC TO GEORGETOWN COUNTY, SC.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EDT TO 1 PM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG NORTHEAST
SC AND SOUTHEAST NC.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE COASTAL PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES. A
SEPARATE ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES FROM 11 AM EDT TO 11 PM EDT TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING COASTAL IMPACTS
TODAY. THE INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES IN SOUTHEAST NC. WAVE-RUNUP MAY ALSO CAUSE
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THOSE BEACHES WITH A
WEAKENED SHORELINE STRUCTURE WITH HIGH TIDE. ROUGH SURF MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE.
THE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES AND THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM. THIS ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
AM EDT MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC OUT 20 NM.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. KCRE AND KMYR ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR AT TIMES, BUT
THAT MAY NOT BE A PERMANENT CHANGE JUST YET. CEILINGS DOWN TO
400-500 FT AT KFLO AND KLBT. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING, WITH BEST CHANCE AT KILM. SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TOWARDS THE S BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY 15Z OR SO THIS
MORNING. A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE TRIED TO
TIME THESE USING PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY, GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. SKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUSTS
COME DOWN BY 01-03Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE
SUNDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OUT OF THE SSE WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE S THIS MORNING, TO SW THIS EVENING, TO W
BY MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE ADVISORIES EXPIRE BY MONDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN FURTHER TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE OUT OF
THE N BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ALSO QUICKLY IMPROVE FROM 3-6 FT
MONDAY TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY. GENTLE BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES. SEAS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TOWARDS 1-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054>056-058-
059.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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