948
FXUS62 KILM 111827
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
227 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
THREAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
3) DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1.... RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXITING THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE LINE, CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN AS THE VORT MAX ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PASSES OVERHEAD. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HEATING HELPS TO MIX INTO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WIND GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, BUT REMAIN STEADY OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK.
BEHIND ISAIAS, AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
GULF, MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US, AND SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOLDING IN
THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING LINE OF CONVECTION. STRATOCUMULUS
SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS, BUT HEATING
SHOULD BRING ALL CLOUD BASES ABOVE MVFR LEVELS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF THEIR ARRIVAL, IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY ABOVE MVFR UPON THEIR
ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD TONIGHT AS STEADY SW TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE AND DRY AIR
FILTERS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO PREVENT.
MARINE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WHILE VEERING TO
WESTERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SEAS ALSO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO NORTHWEST WHILE
SUBSIDING ON MONDAY, THEN BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS EARLY ON TUESDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE FALLING ON MONDAY TO 1-3 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-
4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 1-2 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW
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