640
FXUS62 KILM 112312
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECASTS UPDATES WERE SENT TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EARLIER. OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-2
DEGREES IN SPOTS AS WINDS WILL DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
3) DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1.... RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXITING THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE LINE, CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN AS THE VORT MAX ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PASSES OVERHEAD. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HEATING HELPS TO MIX INTO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WIND GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, BUT REMAIN STEADY OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK.
BEHIND ISAIAS, AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
GULF, MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US, AND SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOLDING IN
THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AT KFLO
AND KLBT, THEN AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK AT KLBT AND
KILM, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE
AFTER THE SUN COMES OUT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WHILE VEERING TO
WESTERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SEAS ALSO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO NORTHWEST WHILE
SUBSIDING ON MONDAY, THEN BECOME 10 KTS OR LESS EARLY ON TUESDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE FALLING ON MONDAY TO 1-3 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-
4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 1-2 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ABW
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