075
FXUS62 KILM 121758
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A WARM AND DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
- 2) MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR SETTLES IN
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARDS TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
WEEK. SUBSIDENCE KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY. EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE IS
A MID-OCTOBER HEATWAVE THAT SENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST,
WHERE SEVERAL SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S MUCH OF THIS WEEK, GETTING NEAR 70 AT
TIMES DURING THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR
SETTLES IN THIS WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE SUMMER-LIKE
RIDGE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC BY A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND THE CAROLINAS
ARE FINALLY GREETED WITH GLORIOUS FALL AIR BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S, WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 40S. BREAK OUT THE PUMPKIN SPICE!
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. WINDS DO GO CALM FOR A SUFFICIENT TIME TUESDAY
MORNING FOR A MARGINAL FOG THREAT AND USED MODEST MVFR BR TO
ADDRESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL HEADLINES ARE DOWN AS WEST WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING, COMING DOWN TO A GENTLE
BREEZE. SEAS IMPROVE TO 1-3 FT. GENTLE BREEZE STICKS AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, COMING FROM THE NE TUESDAY, AND THEN
BACK TO THE SW BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS IMPROVE EVEN MORE TO 1-2 FT.
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS GO UP TO 2-4 FT. DRY
FORECAST DOMINATES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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