458
FXUS62 KILM 130624
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE NEAR 2:30 AM EDT.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF RECORD-TYING OR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- 2) MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR SETTLES IN
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARING RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH LINGERING NEAR THE
LA/MS/AL GULF COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOCATED IN BASICALLY THE SAME PLACE. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY POKE NORTHWARD TOWARDS ARKLAMISS BY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ELONGATING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SOAR, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE, WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY.
500 MB HEIGHTS HANG AROUND 592-594 DAM, WHICH EASILY RANK IN
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS IN THIS AREA, PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY ALONG KCHS, KMHX, AND KHAT. THIS MEANS VERY
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT LOOK A LOT MORE LIKE MID-
TO-LATE JUNE THAN MID-OCTOBER. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN AT LEAST THE
MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST, WHERE 90 DEGREES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN SEVERAL INLAND AREAS. RECORD-TYING OR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLAY HERE.
CURRENT FORECAST VS. RECORDS:
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14:
- WILMINGTON, NC (KILM): 87F (RECORD OF 89F IN 1928)
- NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC (KCRE): 83F (86F IN 1959)
- FLORENCE, SC (KFLO): 88F (88F IN 2021)
- LUMBERTON, NC (KLBT): 89F (91F IN 1928)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15:
- WILMINGTON, NC (KILM): 88F (RECORD OF 88F IN 1985)
- NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F IN 2008)
- FLORENCE, SC (KFLO): 88F (89F IN 2021)
- LUMBERTON, NC (KLBT): 89F (91F IN 1919)
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR
SETTLES IN THIS WEEKEND.
TRADE IN THE SHORTS AND SWEAT TOWELS FOR FLANNEL AND BOOTS, FOR
THE FAMOUS FALL COLD FRONT IS COMING. A TROUGH OUT OF ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN AMPLIFIES BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE JET STREAK BOTTOMS OUT NEAR THE NC/VA AS
IT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING THE HEAT RIDGE OFFSHORE
FOR GOOD, AND SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT,
AND SHOULD MOSTLY MANIFEST IN MID-TO-HIGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
EVENING. PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT LIGHTS. WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VEERING
TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THE WIND STIRS YOU AWAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CAA ALREADY KICKS OFF, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
BY SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT HAS RACED WELL OFFSHORE, WHILE
CANADIAN AIR BLOWS INTO THE AREA LIKE THE LEAVES THEMSELVES.
SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BLUSTERY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 60S WITH A STIFF WIND OUT OF THE NORTH THAT MAY GUST UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
OPEN UP THE WINDOWS SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS WILL COME DOWN TO
5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT, AND CRISPY LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO
NEAR 50 AT THE COAST WILL COMPLEMENT BOILED PEANUTS SIMMERING IN
THE SLOW COOKER.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK NEARLY IDENTICAL, WITH WINDS ONLY GUSTING UP
TO 15-18 MPH THIS TIME. WELCOME TO TRUE, SOUTHERN FALL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION
IS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUILDING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HARD TO TELL WHICH TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE MOST PROBLEMS
WITH THE FOG, AS LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
93-95% FOR EVERYONE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FOG SHOULD BE
REALLY SHALLOW, AND SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO 4-5 SM AT ITS WORST.
FOG SHOULD BE MORE APPARENT AFTER 08-09Z, MIXING OUT BY 13Z.
FROM THERE, VFR THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST INLAND, WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS SEE
SSE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR SO. GROUND FOG MAY START TO FORM AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR GROUND FOG IN THE EARLY
MORNINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. GENTLE BREEZE OUT OF THE NE VEER TO THE SW BY LATE
TONIGHT, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS AT 1-3
FT AT FIRST, IMPROVING EVEN MORE TO 1-2 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST STAYS DRY.
PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, AS GRADIENT
WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE
BREEZE BUILDS IN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, BECOMING A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE BY THE EVENING RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO QUICKLY
VEER TO THE N, GRADUALLY VEERING EVEN MORE TO THE NE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SATURDAY. SEAS PEAK SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 3-5 FT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, TO 6-8 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A SLAM DUNK FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT GALE CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20-60 NM OUT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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