433
FXUS62 KILM 220050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
850 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR INLAND NEW HANOVER COUNTY WAS
CANCELED. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY CANADIAN
AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALMOST
300 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY, DRY WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES, AND
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GREATER DIURNAL RANGES AND ADDING A BIT
TO DAYTIME HIGHS AND SUBTRACTING A BIT FROM LOWS, PLUS LOWERING
DAYTIME DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR MIXING DOWN.
AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, THE
WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH TO CAPTURE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OFF THE
WATER. THIS SHOULD ALTER THE HUMIDITY A BIT AND CREATE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT SUFFICIENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER. MAY SEE A SHOWER POP UP OFFSHORE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AGAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALMOST 300 MILES
EAST OF VA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY, WINDS
AND SEAS WERE SUBSIDING AS THIS LOW WAS MOVING FARTHER AWAY AND
GRADIENT WAS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER OUR WATERS.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL, LEADING TO
SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS, LEADING
TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
ZONES (20-60 MILES OFFSHORE) BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RGZ
DISCUSSION...TRA/RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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