095
FXUS62 KILM 221039
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
2) THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEK ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AROUND
CAPE FEAR, STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AGAIN LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS LEADING TO
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS WEEK ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS LATER
THIS WEEK. ALSO, INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, STARTING INITIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER AND THEN SPREADING ALONG THE NE SC AND SE NC COASTS
LATER THIS WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY BEGINNING ALONG THE SE NC AND NE SC
COASTS DURING THE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND
THEN CONTINUING AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THEREAFTER.
HIGH SURF: ELEVATED SEAS REACHING UP TOWARD 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF
SHORE COULD LEAD TO 6+ FT BREAKING WAVES ON THE BEACHES ALONG WITH
SOME BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THE E-FACING BEACHES IN NEW
HANOVER/GEORGETOWN COUNTIES.
MARINE: SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL
MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z THU THRU 06Z FRI: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS.
06Z FRI THRU MON: VFR WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE U.S. THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD MORE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE BAHAMAS STARTING THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RJB/RGZ
DISCUSSION...TRA/RJB/RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB
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