905
FXUS62 KILM 222324
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
2) THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEK ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AROUND
CAPE FEAR, STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AGAIN LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS LEADING TO
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS WEEK ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS LATER
THIS WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH GALES INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING
THE WATERS AND SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. ALSO, INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, STARTING INITIALLY ALONG THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AND THEN SPREADING ALONG THE NE SC AND SE
NC COASTS LATER THIS WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY BEGINNING ALONG THE SE NC AND NE SC
COASTS DURING THE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND
THEN CONTINUING AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THEREAFTER.
HIGH SURF: ELEVATED SEAS REACHING UP TOWARD 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF
SHORE COULD LEAD TO 6+ FT BREAKING WAVES ON THE BEACHES ALONG WITH
SOME BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY THE E-FACING BEACHES IN NEW
HANOVER/GEORGETOWN COUNTIES.
MARINE: SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL
MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS,
BOTH STRENGTH AND FREQUENCY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST
AS SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE U.S. THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS STARTING THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
INTERMITTENT GALE GUSTS. BY SUNDAY, GALES MAY BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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