308
FXUS62 KILM 240709
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
309 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED EXCEPT FOR THE KEY MESSAGES. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE FOR ALL TIDAL AREAS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER,
COASTAL BREEZES, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE COAST AT TIMES BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST,
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS
NORTHEAST TO BERMUDA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS. ALSO, INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE SE NC AND
NE SC COASTS, INCLUDING THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE HIGHEST
TIDES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
HIGH SURF: HIGH SEAS UP TO NEAR 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO 6+ FT SURF HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR E-FACING
BEACHES. WE HAVE RAISED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN 6 FT BREAKERS OCCURRING STARTING
TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE LARGE WAVES COUPLED WITH HIGH WATER
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME EROSION, ESPECIALLY FOR E-FACING
BEACHES.
MARINE: SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING MARINE
HAZARDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
06Z SAT THRU 06Z SUN: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. VERY LOW RISK OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, GUSTING TO NEAR
20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME.
06Z SUN THRU WED: VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT TIMES GIVEN THE LOW- LEVEL TRAJECTORY WITH
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING OFF THE COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FAR OFFSHORE TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.
EXPECT A BETTER RISK FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEYOND 20 NM AND THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUES THERE. NE WINDS COUNTER TO THE GULF STREAM WILL
RESULT IN VERY STEEP/HAZARDOUS MARITIME CONDITIONS OFFSHORE.
ALTHOUGH THE NE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND DIMINISH SOME THROUGH MID
WEEK, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALWAYS SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN SUCH
SCENARIOS AND THUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SRP
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